GRAINS-Wheat up for 2nd day on likely strong U.S. exports, short-covering

In Commodity News 07/10/2016

Chicago wheat rose on Thursday for a second session to trade near an almost two-week high hit in the previous session on short-covering and expectations of strong demand for U.S. shipments.

Soybeans slid for a third straight session on added pressure from reports of higher yields across the U.S. Midwest. Corn fell for a second day in part on expectation of a record crop in Argentina over the 2016/17 season.

Chicago Board Of Trade’s most-active wheat contract rose 0.4 percent to $4.06-1/2 a bushel by 0312 GMT, having gained more than two percent on Wednesday. It also hit a high of $4.08-1/2 in the last session, strongest since Sept. 23.

Soybeans fell 0.4 percent to $9.52-3/4 a bushel. Corn lost 0.6 percent to $3.45-3/4 a bushel.

“U.S. wheat is very competitive, there are sales happening,” said Ole Houe, an analyst with brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney. “There is not much downside to U.S. wheat prices.”

The news of Morocco’s grain agency buying 260,000 tonnes of U.S. soft wheat is underpinning the market. Short-covering after Wednesday’s big gain was providing additional support.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s latest commitments report showed that as of Sept. 27, non-commercial

traders held the fourth-largest net short position in records dating to 2006. That big net short left the wheat market vulnerable to short-covering rallies.

For soybeans, expectations of higher yields continue to weigh on prices.

Informa Economics, a private analytics firm, forecast U.S. 2016 soybean production at 4.3 billion bushels with a yield of 51.6 bushels per acre (bpa), trade sources said.

Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone raised its soy yield estimate to a record 52.5 bushels per acre.

Those figures are higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s last forecast of 50.6 bpa, signalling a possible increase in official estimates at the next update on Oct. 12.

In Argentina, farmers will likely harvest a record corn crop as they favour planting corn and wheat over soybeans in the upcoming 2016/17 season, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Wednesday.

A record Argentine crop of 36 million tonnes of commercial-use corn is expected, up from 30 million tonnes in 2015/16, said Esteban Copati, head of crop estimates at the exchange.

 Grains prices at  0312 GMT
 Contract    Last    Change   Pct chg  Two-day chg  MA 30   RSI
 CBOT wheat  406.50  1.50     +0.37%   +2.78%       402.85  60
 CBOT corn   345.75  -2.00    -0.58%   -0.07%       333.13  65
 CBOT soy    952.75  -4.00    -0.42%   -2.08%       962.27  42
 CBOT rice   10.04   -$0.01   -0.05%   -0.30%       $9.75   65
 WTI crude   49.51   -$0.32   -0.64%   +1.68%       $45.99  68
 Currencies                                                 
 Euro/dlr    $1.120  -$0.003  -0.30%   -0.15%               
 USD/AUD     0.7609  -0.004   -0.59%   -0.31%               
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Tom Hogue)