In Oil & Companies News 18/07/2016
The world oil market see-sawed this week as traders tracked growing investor risk appetite, fluctuations in the dollar and stubborn supply glut worries.
“Oil prices are continuing their rollercoaster ride,” wrote Commerzbank analysts in an oil research note.
Crude futures began on the back foot on Monday, sliding as an increase in US drilling activity and a strong dollar reversed gains from last week’s better-than-forecast US jobs report.
A strong greenback makes dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive for those using other currencies. That tends to weigh on demand and price levels.
Oil then rebounded on Tuesday as Opec forecast an easing of the global oversupply that has weighed on the market in recent years.
Traders bid up crude oil after Monday’s rout, in what some analysts said was due partly to a technical correction.
Sentiment also brightened on speculation over possible global central bank stimulus measures following Britain’s recent referendum vote to leave the EU.
In its July report, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expected the global supply glut to ease further this year and next year on falling production by non-Opec producers.
The 14-member cartel, which provides about one-third of the world’s crude, has squeezed competitors by keeping the taps open.
It reported that its June production rose by 264,000 barrels per day to an average 32,9-million barrels per day.
Opec predicted global demand growth would pick up next year.
The market then sank on Wednesday as official US data showed a smaller-than-expected decline in crude stockpiles. That compounded fears that abundant global supplies might not be easing as quickly as expected.
Prices also took a tumble after the International Energy Agency warned that “the existence of very high oil stocks is a threat to the recent stability of oil prices”.
Over the past month, oil has fluctuated between $44 (R630) and $52 (R745) per barrel, after hitting near 13-year lows below $30 in February on the back of high supplies.
On Thursday, oil rose in tandem with a rally on global equity markets as rising risk appetite and a weaker dollar buoyed demand.
Prices then faltered Friday on resurgent worries over a supply glut and weak demand, with some analysts forecasting crude prices could fall to $40 a barrel.
IG Markets analyst Bernard Aw agreed that oversupply was the central factor.
“Oil prices are being dragged lower on renewed oversupply concerns,” Aw said.
“We have seen Opec output hitting its highest in recent history, lifted by Nigeria production and more supply from Gulf producers.
“There were analyst warnings of oil reaching $40, which weighed on sentiment.”
At around 1615 GMT on Friday, WTI for delivery in August stood at $46,05 a barrel, which compared with $45,59 one week earlier.
Brent North Sea crude for September traded at $47,67 a barrel, up from $46,85 for the August contract a week earlier.
“A broad range of drivers have contributed to (oil) price formation this week, from broader financial market sentiment and currency market risk, to resurgent concerns about global oversupply,” Accenture analyst Damien Cox told AFP.
“A persistent theme in recent months has been the perception that the market is moving towards a so-called ‘rebalancing’ as higher-priced sources of oil are likely displaced by the low-price environment,” he added.
“Expectations that the market could be tighter during the second half of this year are seen as price-supportive.”
Source: AFP
