In Oil & Companies News 25/07/2016
If you’re looking for clues as to where oil could be heading next, one technician says to look no further than charts from the financial crisis.
In a recent interview with CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Cornerstone Macro’s Carter Worth described the current chart of crude oil as a “perfect match” to that of the turbulent 2008-2009 period. That leads him to believe the commodity could continue to come under pressure.
“I think we’re going lower, and crude looks to my eyes like it’s heading back to $40,” said Worth.
On Friday, crude oil dipped below $44 for the first time since mid-May intraday before closing above that level. Yet Brent has now fallen 15 percent from its June high, when it traded just under $52 a barrel.
Looking at a long-term chart of crude, Worth pointed to a “triple bottom” that formed in 2008-2009. Typically, technicians view these types of patterns as a reversal in trend. However, it’s that performance in the months after that has Worth more concerned.
“What’s important is that after 29 sessions remarkably, we sell off 20 percent and then after 81 sessions we sell off 20 percent,” he explained.
“Well, guess what happens this time?” asked Worth, pointing to the current chart of crude. “We’re having literally a perfect match.”
Worth pointed to an almost identical pattern: A “double-bottom” that formed in early 2016. He noted that after 27 sessions and 81 sessions we saw two similar pullbacks.
But at this point, said Worth, this is where the similarities end. He does not see a bounce in crude, as was seen in 2008.
Crude’s 150-day moving average has edged lower, to about $41, which further indicates a downtrend to Worth.
“So you could draw your lines anyway you want,” said Worth. “You have a break in trend, and I don’t think this is quite finished yet.”
