In Commodity News 18/07/2016
Gold extended its decline after data on Friday showed the U.S. economy gaining traction, raising bets that the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates this year.
Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 1 percent to $1,323.83 an ounce and was at $1,327.24 at 2:46 p.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal lost 2.1 percent last week, snapping six weeks of gains. In China, silver dropped for a third day.
Gold has rallied this year as demand for haven assets surged amid volatile financial markets, uncertainty surrounding the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union and as the Fed paused in its monetary policy tightening path. From a boost in retail sales to higher consumer prices, the data released Friday revives bets that the Fed will raise borrowing costs this year. U.S. stock index futures advanced and the yen fell following a failed coup attempt in Turkey, which also undercut gold’s haven appeal.
“The better U.S. data on Friday clearly got people starting to think the Fed could actually hike this year,” Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at the bank’s wealth management unit, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “It’s not something that the market has priced, but certainly it will be a negative event for gold.”
The Fed’s policy-setting panel next meets July 26-27. Investors see about a 8 percent probability of a rate increase at that meeting, according to pricing in federal fund futures contracts. Odds of a move by December were 44 percent, up from about 8 percent after the Brexit vote.
“Prices will probably moderate on a six-to-12 month view, but we still think they’re very well-supported by negative real rates in the U.S,” Gordon said. “Even if the Fed begins to hike, they are behind the curve, so real rates will stay negative for a while yet. If there is any pick up in uncertainty around U.S. elections, or around Brexit, or even things in the Middle East, you are going to see people track back towards gold.”
Other banks say bullion may rally further. Gold is in a major bull market and may surge to more than $1,500 as low borrowing costs buoy demand and the U.S. election looms, according to DBS Group Holdings Ltd. Prices could reach that level in the next six to 12 months, said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also citing the prospect of low long-term rates and the U.S. vote.
- Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose 1.45 metric tons to 2,002.46 tons on Friday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- In China, bullion of 99.99 percent purity fell 0.3 percent to 286.30 yuan a gram ($1,329.89 an ounce) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
- Silver for December delivery fell 1.6 percent to 4,394 yuan a kilogram ($20.4104 an ounce) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
- Spot silver declined 1.6 percent, platinum dropped 0.5 percent and palladium retreated 1.5 percent.
Source: Bloomberg
