Dalian iron ore extends gains; Singapore futures retreat after rally

In Commodity News 09/03/2016

Iron ore futures in China jumped another 6 percent on Tuesday, but futures in Singapore retreated after a big rally in the prior session that had lifted spot prices by the most on record. Spot iron ore had soared almost 20 percent to above $60 per tonne on Monday, its highest in nearly nine months, as bullish sentiment swept a market that has lost 70 percent in the past three years. Expectations of a short-term boost in China’s steel production, as producers looked to brisk seasonal demand, underpinned price gains in iron ore. The raw material now up 46 percent this year, making it the top performing commodity.

“While the rally’s hard to substantiate I can see a scenario where the market is pricing in a $60-tonne iron ore on the basis of a potential rise in steel production in China,” said Daniel Hynes, commodity strategist at ANZ. That increase may be supported by measures aimed at stimulating China’s economy, Hynes said, although he expects country’s steel output to drop in 2016. The most-traded May iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 5.9 percent at the exchange-set ceiling of 423 yuan ($65) per tonne by midday, its highest in a year. But, May iron ore on the Singapore Exchange fell 6.3 percent to $54.94 per tonne, after soaring more than 21 percent on Monday.

On Monday, iron ore for immediate delivery to China’s Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI jumped 19.5 percent to $62.60 per tonne, according to data compiled by The Steel Index. A 170,000-tonne cargo of Australian 62-percent grade Pilbara iron ore fines was sold at $64 per tonne on the globalORE platform on Tuesday, a dollar lower than on Monday. “Some sellers are holding back and buyers are also not very willing to buy at high levels,” said a Shanghai-based iron ore trader. “I think prices went up without a solid base.” On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-active May rebar was up 5.5 percent at 2,144 yuan per tonne, after rising 8 percent to hit its upside limit of 2,194 yuan earlier.

China’s iron ore imports rose 8.3 percent to 73.61 million tonnes in February from a year ago, customs data showed, as top miners boosted shipments to gain more market share in the world’s top consumer.

“But with iron ore prices rising there is a chance we could see some of the Chinese domestic iron ore mines that have been closed for the past 12 months reopen, which could potentially result in some weakness in imports later this year,” said ANZ’s Hynes.

Rebar and iron ore prices at 0423 GMT

  Contract                          Last    Change   Pct Change
  SHFE REBAR MAY6                   2144   +112.00        +5.51
  DALIAN IRON ORE DCE DCIO MAY6      423    +23.50        +5.88
  SGX IRON ORE FUTURES MAY         54.94     -3.72        -6.34
  THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX      62.6    +10.20       +19.47
  METAL BULLETIN INDEX             63.74     +9.99       +18.59

Dalian iron ore and Shanghai rebar in yuan/tonne
Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr.; Editing by Savio D’Souza)